83 The country stability J- curve indicates that as nations become more open, they become, at first, less stable, until they eventually surpass their initial levels of stability. The " curve" plots the trajectory nations must pass as they move from authoritarian control towards liberal democracy. Essentially, the curve is a graphical representation of the common sense proposition that governments moving towards or away from authoritarianism must necessarily survive a " slide toward instability" as their institutions of governance are broken down, and then reformed in new configurations. In the diagram above the 4 growth- models represent indications of stability versus openness. A nation's stability and the horizontal axis measures its relative openness to external political and economic forces III Oil-states II New pragmatic leaders IV South Africa and tigers I North African ICT hubs Increased internal political stability Towards stability: Increased stability on edges of J- curve

84 In the first decade after independence in the 1960s, Africa had a robust economic growth. This was partly due to investments made by the new governments, but mostly due to high commodity prices. High oil prices ( Nigeria), cocoa prices ( Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire) and copper prices ( Zambia) raised income in many African countries. At the end of the 1960s many commodity prices came down forcefully, ( cocoa for instance declined by 75%) ending the first period of robust growth in Africa. Secondly, political instability ( coups, civil wars) have led to economic decline. Countries with high- yielding commodities like oil ( Nigeria, Angola) or diamonds ( Sierre Leone) fell prey to ' warlordism' and severe social divisions. In many parts of Africa, military- backed one- party states led to economic collapse. Sub- Saharan African GDP growth since 1960 African Investment rates took a dive in the 1980s Towards stability: Lessons learned in 60s boom/ bust 60s lifestyle boom in Africa